Revenue Pipeline
Three-phase autonomous revenue discovery system. Discovers niches, validates with AI-realizability gates, develops MVPs, and deploys.
- AI-realizability gate prevents unbuildable projects
- Autonomous niche discovery and validation
- 26+ shared skills across pipeline
Activity Timeline
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Forecast-consistency study passed 96/96 blocks with clean 6/6 layer-1 validation.
Though mothballed since February 16, the project completed superforecasts ranging 43-62% for an agentic firm reaching $100M ARR by 2028 and 26-42% for a 167-hour METR time horizon by January 31, 2028. The consistency study awaits a Polaris DM notification and post-reset Astra reviews before delivery.
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Zero-variance crash in analyze.py fixed; blocks 1–3 clean.
F-statistic undefined guard added to analyze.py; zero side effects on blocks 1–3 verified. Block 5 awaiting Exa credit availability.
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Backtest lane deployed: 11 mutation proofs, Brier 0.071 matching live arm.
Backtest lane ships with 11 mutation proofs as leakage guard and offline verification. First run: 5 resolved rows, 0 post-cutoff documents, Brier 0.071 matching live arm performance, instrument validated. Budget: 28/100 used.
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Icarus paper account smoke-tested; 419 tests green.
Onboarded 2026-08-07 and verified. Gateway startup and 8 adapter-phase follow-ups queued before orchestration handoff. FutureSearch Fable arm: 38% Oct/Dec Fed hike probability; HIGH-tier re-run pending within $5.13 ceiling.
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futuresearch-ab Fable arm complete; paper trading commissioning cleared.
Fable forecast: 38% Fed rate-hike probability, Aug 7 jobs report cited as shifting market pricing 67%→33-44%. Paper trading commissioning gates cleared for Interactive Brokers account with $30k paper balance; credentials vaulted.
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Micron NAND revenue gate live at 19/22 tests; FutureSearch A/B trial designed; Icarus paper trading staged but incomplete.
CONSTITUTION.md §4.1 encodes NAND ≥33% quarterly revenue share gate with 19/22 tests passing. FutureSearch A/B pairs LOW/HIGH tiers against independent HIGH runs; Fable recorded 38% Oct/Dec Fed hike probability. Icarus paper trading commissioning staged, execution stalled at turn boundary.
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M1 data-gate PASS-WITH-FIXES; M2 memo P1 arithmetic error found.
M1 registry, firewall, and honesty checks confirmed correct; 3 non-blocking low-severity issues. M2 margin impact overstated ~50% (~8pp stated vs ~5.3pp actual). Four-perspective Codex council (skeptic/architect/risk-analyst/empiricist) ran; synthesis pending.
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M1 Arc milestone: PASS-WITH-FIXES from Sol data gate.
Load-bearing elements passed; 3 low-severity issues flagged. Browser test coverage gap deferred. M1 status: qualified.
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Three human-gated items blocked across pipeline projects.
Deploy gates at 200h and 167h, dev gate at 116h. All high/medium priority, all unacknowledged. No forward progress without human intervention.